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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-07-05T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/15629/-1
CME Note: The start time of the CME was changed as seen on SOHO LASCO. There were two CMEs, an earlier one headed towards STA that overlaps with this event that was seen around 2020-07-05T14:24Z. CME arrival date/time is not certain as there are two potential flux ropes. From Lan Jian First CME short and weak, arrived at around 20:45 UT on July 8. Another flux rope seen in the second half day of July 9, with slightly stronger peak magnetic field strength around 15:50UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T15:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-07-09T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (GSFC SWRC)
Prediction Method Note:

We noted a miniscule increase in parameters on the ENLIL timeline around 2020-07-09T06:00Z.

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/15632/1
Model Inputs:
2020-07-05T14:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-73.0, Lat.=-6.0, Speed=385.0, HalfAngle=27.0, Time21.5=2020-07-06T02:42Z
2020-07-05T17:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=-7.0, Speed=505.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2020-07-06T03:42Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2020-07-09T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=1
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2020-07-09T02:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20200706_024200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: -144.37 hour(s)
Difference: 9.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Colin Komar (M2M Office) on 2020-07-15T16:12Z

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